The Tairāwhiti economy remains subdued, with provisional estimates from Infometrics showing a 0.9%pa decline in economic activity over the March 2024 year. The March 2024 quarter showed a rebound compared to the Cyclone Gabrielle-affected March 2023 quarter, with activity in the economy up 1.3%pa, but still below usual levels.
Primary sector activity remains challenging. Despite livestock kills being up 26%pa in the March 2024 quarter(compared to the Cyclone-affected period) and up 4.0%above usual levels in the Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay area, mutton prices are down 35%pa, lamb down 15%pa, and beef down 1.8%pa, lowering primary sector revenues. Forestry export prices are down 12-20%pa, with forestry removals down too. In slightly better news, on-farm costs have plateaued, providing some relief.
Consumer spending growth bounced up in the March 2024 quarter, up 10%pa, ahead of both national growth of 3.8%pa and inflation of 4.0%pa, although this figure is made larger due to comparing to the cyclone-affected period. Annual spending topped $713m, up 6.1%pa, although with persistent inflation and high mortgage rates, retailers are still struggling.
Construction remains a continued bright spot for Tairāwhiti. Residential building consents are down slightly, by 2.3%pa over the March 2024, indicating weaker future activity. However, this fall is off a high base, and considerably better than the 25%pa fall nationally. Non-residential consent values totalled nearly $57m, up 12%pa compared to a 1.1%pa fall nationally.
Employment growth continues too in Tairāwhiti, but at a slower pace than the national average. Filled jobs for Tairāwhiti residents rose 1.6%pa in the March 2024 quarter, supporting annual growth of 1.2%pa for the year ending March 2024, less than half the national growth rate of 2.9%pa. This growth was driven by more jobs in healthcare, construction, education, and the public sector. However, primary sector and manufacturing employment was lower.
Rising pressure on some households is showing through in Tairāwhiti, with Jobseeker Support recipients up 9.5%pa on average over the March 2024 year, faster than national growth of 7.8%pa.
Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor Tairāwhiti March 2024