Tougher economic times remain in Tairāwhiti, with a 1.3%pa fall in economic activity over the 12 months to September 2025, according to provisional estimates from Infometrics. Although forestry and health activity appears to have improved, lower activity across construction, the information sector, and agriculture all dragged activity lower.
Employment activity dropped in the September year too, with filled jobs of Tairāwhiti residents sitting 2.3%pa lower than a year ago – a larger hit than the national average. Falling primary sector employment and fewer accommodation and food service roles, stemming from less domestic travel activity, more than offset job gains in health, public sector, and education industries. The unemployment rate rose to over 6% in Tairāwhiti for the first time since June 2021, although the gap between Tairāwhiti and the national average remains closer than historically. Job ads in the combined Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay area remain 3.2%pa lower than a year ago, but have cut the decline down in the last few quarters from a 68%pa plunge a year ago.
Marketview spending data shows a further spending contraction in Tairāwhiti over the September 2025 quarter, taking the annual decline to -0.8%pa – in line with the national decline. Lower tourism activity has also contributed to the spending decline, with guest nights in Tairāwhiti down 10%pa, compared to a slight 1.3%pa improvement nationally.
Recent population trends also point to the first decline in Tairāwhiti’s population in 24 years in 2025, with a 0.2%pa fall due to more people shifting to other parts of New Zealand, a further fall in natural increase, and a sharp drop in international migration inflows.
Primary sector activity in Tairāwhiti has been mixed. The region’s meat sector has seen higher prices, but mixed production. Protein prices remain high, with slaughter prices for lamb over the year to September 2025 up 31%pa and beef up 29%pa. But while lamb kill volumes in the combined Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay area were 5.6%pa higher over the last 12 months, cattle slaughter volumes were 3.0% lower. Higher operating costs and a slight pull back in horticulture prices have hit growers. Yet forestry has seen a rebound in activity, despite facing low prices for products. Export values and volumes for forestry products rose over the year to September 2025, after a challenging period.
Construction activity in Tairāwhiti remains more subdued, with a 9.3%pa fall in residential consent numbers, and a 5.6%pa fall in non-residential consent values, over the 12 months to September 2025. Civil work levels also appear slightly lower than a year ago too. At the same time, some housing indicators continue to improve, with a 25%pa drop in Housing Register applicants, and a 2.8% increase in public housing.
Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor Tairāwhiti September 2025