The Tairāwhiti economy had a challenging end to 2024, after a stronger first half of the year. However, the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle in the 2023 comparison year makes comparisons more difficult. Provisional estimates from Infometrics show a decline in activity in the December 2024 quarter compared to a year earlier, slowing annual GDP growth to 1.0%pa over the 12 months to December 2024. Employment in Tairāwhiti has dropped back 0.9%paover the 2024 calendar year, with lower primary sector employment, as well as fewer jobs across accommodation and food services, information, media, and telecommunications, and retail. Health, construction, and education employment gains have helped limit the fall.
Tourism activity was weaker at the end of 2024, with a 6.7%pa fall in December 2024 quarter domestic guest nights in Tairāwhiti, and international guest nights were lower too. Stronger growth at the start of 2024 is keeping the annual average growth rate at 6.5%pa. Market view card spending data shows a 0.1%pa drop in households pending in the December 2024 quarter – slightly less of a drop than the national average. Stronger spending earlier in the year (compared to the Cyclone-affected2023 year) means that overall spending growth of 2.4%paover 2024 overstates spending appetites more recently.
Tairāwhiti’s housing market has seen more activity lately, with a 24%pa lift in listings and a 25%pa lift in sales over the 2024 calendar year – stronger than national average growth. Other housing outcomes have improved too, with lower emergency housing grants and Housing Register waitlists, and more public housing stock. Residential consents have pulled back slightly – but from high levels. The 3.3%pa decline is much less than the national fall of 10%pa, and quarterly consents remain above 2023 and 10-year average figures.
Non-residential building consent values have dropped back over the last year, down 6.8%pa. This drop highlights the current limitations on business investment, which should improve over 2025 as sales improve.
The primary sector is more upbeat locally and will provide a more solid foundation going forward. Beef prices were 8.8% higher on average over 2024 compared to 2023, with December month prices up 24%pa off the back of strong exports to the US. Lamb prices have recovered towards better levels in recent months too, but remain 1.5%pa lower over 2024 on average. Horticulture export prices are high too, up 12%pa on a year ago. Forestry activity looked a touch better, with slightly higher removals in the December quarter, although wood commodity price returns remain poor.
Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor Tairāwhiti December 2024